The Tennessee Department of Revenue makes payments of state-shared revenues to all Tennessee municipalities based on population. MTAS tracks the monthly revenues reported by the Department of Revenue and uses those along with estimates to forecast what cities may expect to receive in the coming fiscal year.

Starting January 1, 2026, Tennessee will implement a new Population Estimates Program to ensure more accurate and equitable distribution of state shared revenues to counties and municipalities. Communities will now receive funding based on updated population figures, reflecting real-time growth and change.

The first certified estimates will be published July 1, 2026. The overall population has increased since 2020, and as a result the per capital amounts will likely decrease. This change in population estimates will impact most cities, as a decrease in population will likely result in less state shared revenue, and an increase will likely result in more state shared revenue.

The estimates shown below include actual numbers for FY 2024-25, as well as an estimate for the 2025-26 fiscal year using city and state provided numbers. Due to the population estimate change noted above, the reader should use sound judgement and caution when budgeting for 2026-27. 

A conservative estimate where revenues would likely not be significantly overstated is recommended. The amounts shown for 2026-27 have been estimated using a growth factor of 2.5% for revenues. However, each local government will be affected differently as some will see an increase in population estimate while others will see a decrease in population.

The first column in the chart below shows an updated estimate for the 2024-25 fiscal year ($179.93). The second column estimates 2025-26 ($184.54). Through February 2026 state sales tax has increased about 3.9 percent and gas and motor fuel taxes have increased about 1.1 percent compared to the same time last year.